On April 19, Putin announced an Easter ceasefire. A day later, it was already clear that this truce, like many previous ones, was a fiction. Within 24 hours, the Ukrainian side recorded 2,935 violations of the truce declared by Moscow.
There is no doubt that the Kremlin’s declarations regarding the truce are worth very little. In fact, one can be sure that when Moscow announces or agrees to a ceasefire, it is never really concerned with humanitarian action. Referring to the holiday season or any other official reasons was not and is not the motive behind Putin’s actions.
We are probably unable to even count how many times Moscow has declared or agreed to a truce or ceasefire since the beginning of its aggression in 2014. One gets the impression that subsequent truces took place during ongoing truces, which were never officially broken, but were also never observed by Russia.
Before the full-scale invasion, we had a series of agreements, whether concluded as the Minsk agreements or within the Normandy format. Russia always demanded something and then accused Ukraine of not complying with the agreements. On numerous occasions, the truce was used by Russian troops to strengthen their positions. The current situation is similar. In fact, we can be sure that when the Kremlin declares a truce, it already has an information operation in place to blame Ukraine for aggressive behavior and breaking the ceasefire.
This time, however, Ukraine has also decided to take preemptive action, with President Zelensky proposing a full, unconditional ceasefire after April 20. Russia’s response was to announce the “continuation of combat operations against Ukraine.” Of course, this was supported by information about attacks from the Ukrainian side. Although Putin himself declared that he would “think” about a major truce.
All this is happening against the backdrop of the declared peace process and the possibility of achieving peace announced by US President Donald Trump and the American administration. On the one hand, Putin does not want his statements to contradict the US declarations, but on the other hand, he is clearly acting in a manner contrary to that which would serve peace or even a truce.
There is also no doubt that the aggressor always has more tools at its disposal to bring about a truce. All Russia needs to do is cease fire, and the truce will become a reality. However, this requires will, and the Kremlin simply does not have it. This is particularly evident in the case of missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities that are not on the front line. Attacking Ukrainian cities usually has no military significance, but is terrorist in nature and is directly aimed at disrupting the daily lives of the inhabitants of the whole of Ukraine. Depriving the civilian population of access to electricity means not only a lack of light, but also a lack of water and heat, and difficulties in the functioning of all institutions, including schools and hospitals.
It is also worth noting one more fact: external control of the ceasefire and truce. From the very beginning of Russian military aggression (i.e., de facto since 2014), Ukraine has allowed international observers, diplomats, and foreign journalists to observe events on the front line. Access to the front line, not to mention the possibility of monitoring Russian rocket fire by independent institutions that would have access to Russian territory, is impossible. Of course, Russia also manipulates this fact by bringing in bribed politicians, activists, and even people from Western countries who use the title of “journalist.” People with Polish citizenship also take part in this deception. Obviously, they do not meet the standards of independent institutions whose opinions would be worthy of attention. However, for Kremlin propaganda, they serve as a kind of smokescreen and also play an important role in the propaganda process aimed at Russian society. They skillfully shift the blame for aggressive actions and violations of agreements onto Ukraine.
Unfortunately, without international support and international control, there is no chance for a more serious form of truce or ceasefire. But above all, it is not possible without the will of dictator Putin. And contrary to the naive statements coming from the West, this will does not exist.
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