The stalemate on the front lines, but also the incomprehensible actions of Western allies, foster belief in the possibility of resolving the conflict as a result of something extraordinary and unexpected. This can be described as “waiting for the Black Swan.” The term, introduced by Nassim Taleb, refers to an unpredictable event with enormous destructive power that fundamentally changes the rules of the game. Today, however, it has become not only an element of hope for a weary society, but also a potential operational tool in information warfare.
Both in Kyiv and in Western capitals, the failure to meet expectations by implementing conventional scenarios for ending the war (military victory of one side or a lasting negotiated peace) seems to be creating demand for non-linear scenarios. On the one hand, this phenomenon does not necessarily have to be negative in itself, but on the other hand, it can be exploited by the Russian secret services for the purposes of disinformation and manipulation, and there are certain indications that this is already happening.
The most popular “Black Swan” scenario remains the biological issue: the sudden death or overthrow of Vladimir Putin. Since 2022, there have been regular “leaks” – from alleged cancer diagnoses, through rumors of body doubles, to reports of palace coups. It can be argued that such sensational stories partly motivate the population to resist the aggressor. If the real Putin is dead, the end of the empire is near.
However, it cannot be ruled out that such information is also accompanied by specific actions aimed at testing the reactions of the markets, the army, and the enemy’s services, as well as a way to identify information channels and prepare for something that, in principle, should be unpredictable.
The second variant of the “Black Swan” is the “praetorian rebellion” scenario. After the experience of Prigozhin’s march, the Russian opposition (or rather factions within the system) and Western analysts are constantly monitoring cracks (or rather fissures, and probably only apparent ones) in the monolith of power. Disinformation in this area consists of deliberately exaggerating conflicts between security agencies (e.g., the FSB and the army) or regions. Creating false signals about the possible and imminent collapse of the Russian Federation may be aimed at forcing the West to adopt a cautious stance – fear of “nuclear chaos” and the ‘Balkanization’ of Russia is prompting some politicians to seek a stabilizing “deal,” even at the expense of Ukraine. It has long been known that the West fears not so much an uncontrolled takeover of power in Russia as control over nuclear weapons.
The third area of fear of the “Black Swan” is technology and weapons of mass destruction. The “black swan” could be the use of tactical nuclear weapons or – more likely at this stage – provoking a technological disaster (e.g., at a nuclear power plant) and blaming the other side. In the information space, we are seeing constant “stirring” of this topic. Russian posts about Kiev’s “dirty bomb” or alleged accidents are not just scare tactics. They are creating information noise that, in the event of a real crisis (or provocation), will make it impossible to quickly attribute responsibility. If no one knows what is true, NATO’s response is delayed, and in modern warfare, that means defeat.
Another important aspect is the possible use of Deepfake technology to create artificial “Black Swans.” In 2025, the quality of generated video and audio will allow for the creation of material in which, for example, the US president announces the withdrawal of troops from Europe, or the president of Ukraine announces surrender. Such material, released online at a critical moment before it can be verified, could cause panic on the stock markets and chaos on the front lines. Russian services are actively testing the resilience of Western information ecosystems to such pinpoint strikes.
The “Black Swan” is no longer just a statistical or philosophical category. It has become a potentially operational element of hybrid warfare. Waiting for a miraculous or catastrophic event to cut the Gordian knot of war is a psychological trap. It also distracts attention from long-term processes—industrial potential, demographics, and logistics. It distorts the perception of reality and can raise excessive fears that have a demotivating effect.
PB
