By EUvsDisinfo
2025 was certainly a bad year to be flying in or out of Lithuania. According to the Ministry of the Interior, 320 flights have been disrupted at Vilnius and Kaunas airports because of cigarette-smuggling air balloons crossing from Belarus, causing sixty hours of closures and affecting 47,000 passengers. But the fallout has been even harsher for around 185 Lithuanian lorries stranded in Belarus over Christmas, after the authorities there barred them from returning home. Although Lithuania reopened its border crossings after monthly closure in October, Belarus continues to hold the vehicles, threatening Lithuania’s role as a key link in the Asia–Europe road transport corridor.
Against this backdrop, Lithuania declared a nationwide state of emergency on 9 December. The decision was the latest in a series of border and security measures adopted by EU countries facing persistent risks linked to the Lukashenko regime and its alignment with Moscow. The purpose of these balloon operations is to undermine the stability of an EU member state and to intimidate European citizens by creating direct risks to civilian aviation. Hence, these actions must be seen for what they are: a part of a broader, targeted hybrid campaign waged by Belarus and Russia alike.
More tightening at the border
Security concerns along the EU–Belarus border have been mounting for months.
- In September 2025, Poland temporarily closed its border with Belarus due to security threats linked to Russia-led Zapad military drills conducted on Belarusian territory.
- Around the same time, Latvia closed its airspace along the eastern border with Belarus and Russia following the incursions of Russian drones into Polish airspace.
- Earlier in the year, due to concerns related to state-facilitated migrant smuggling, Latvia banned cyclists from crossing the border with Belarus, limiting them to motor vehicles only.
- Lithuania closed its border for a month in October 2025, after cigarette-smuggling air balloons crossing from Belarus caused multiple closures of its airports, ultimately leading to a nationwide state of emergency in December.
As in previous cases, pro-Kremlin outlets and Belarusian state media responded with a familiar playbook: dismissing security concerns, ridiculing EU decisions, and portraying European governments as irrational puppets of the evil Brussels acting against their own interests.
Propaganda’s take one: Ridiculous pretexts
Pro-Kremlin outlets and Belarusian state media completely dismissed the EU security concerns. A Belarusian state TV mocked Lithuania’s decision, saying: ‘The pretext couldn’t be more ridiculous. Cigarette drones and weather balloons are supposedly threatening airspace!’
Some outlets went further calling Lithuania’s decision ‘moronic’ and an ‘indicator of primitive and narrow thinking’, sarcastically suggesting that authorities would soon start shooting at crows and butterflies flying from Belarus. As state propaganda played down the Zapad military drills as non-threatening, it portrayed Poland’s temporary border closure in September 2025 as imposed ‘for no reason’ and based on ‘far-fetched’ arguments. The rationale behind Latvia’s border decisions was similarly distorted. They were interpreted as the ‘agony of European authorities and an attack on their own population’, with claims that Latvians were being discouraged from visiting Belarus because they had become ‘too impressed’ by living conditions there.
Propaganda’s take two: Shooting oneself in the foot
Pro-Kremlin outlets argued that EU border decisions were economically self-destructive, harming their own economies and populations. Belarusian state TV asserted that Poland’s closure had an ‘extremely negative impact’ on trade and tourism. Lithuania’s actions were branded ‘wild,’ with Sputnik Belarus claiming the country ‘survives only thanks to trade flows from Belarus and Russia.’ These claims ignore basic economic facts: trade with Belarus and Russia accounts for only a small share of Lithuania’s total trade, and neither country ranks among its top partners.
Nonetheless, pro-Kremlin outlets routinely predict economic collapse in the Baltic states. In October 2025, Belarusian state TV claimed Latvia was facing ‘catastrophic’ decline, even predicting: ‘Not in a few years, but within months, perhaps weeks, Latvia will have nothing to eat.’ Similar dismissive rhetoric followed Estonia’s reporting of Russian airspace violations, with state media sneering that the country was ‘a speck on the map.’
Propaganda’s take three: Puppets
The ‘lost sovereignty’ trope also featured prominently with some pro-Kremlin outlets claiming Brussels ordered Lithuania to close border points as part of a provocation to ‘open a second front against Russia.’ Belarusian state TV echoed this, describing Baltic politicians as ‘created in a test tube in Brussels’ and aimed to torpedo US-Belarus dialogue. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov offered an alternative explanation, naming London as the instigator whereas Belarusian outlets pointed to the UK and the US as the supposed masterminds while reporting on Poland and Latvia. Although pro-Kremlin outlets differed on who exactly was pulling the strings, they agreed on one point: EU countries were denied any real agency of their own.
Same Old Hot Air from Moscow
Minsk, likely backed by Russia, is deliberately escalating tensions with Lithuania to destabilize the border region and spark divisions, contributing to the broader escalation of hybrid threats against EU countries.
This is a textbook example of FIMI operations, where Russia-inspired actions aim to undermine EU security and sovereignty. By leveraging pro-Kremlin media to peddle familiar tropes, Moscow seeks to spin the EU-Belarus border crisis in its favour portraying EU security measures as absurd, self-harmful, and externally dictated. In this distorted reality a genuine threat is being belittled, and its potentially devastating consequences are being callously trivialized. Balloons became butterflies, smugglers became victims, and sovereignty vanished on cue. No new angles, no surprises: Moscow replaying the same script.
By EUvsDisinfo
