By Stanislaw Żaryn, for StopFake
Media around the world increasingly wonder about Vladimir Putin’s health and well-being.
Commentators write about his alleged illnesses and sometimes even wonder whether the
Russian despot is still alive. Indeed, many similar publications express the hope that the
dictator’s demise will be followed by a democratic transition resulting in Russia no longer
using force against other countries. Such a belief is a dangerous naivety inspired by a lack of
awareness of what today’s Russia is.
Drawing attention to Putin’s health and wondering if he is still alive is somewhat positive for
Moscow. On the one hand, this highlights Russia’s alleged weakness, which is important in
terms of the war against Ukraine and forcing that country to agree to negotiations. Convincing
the West that Russia is weak, that its president is on the precipice of death and that the Russian
state is in disarray aims to encourage Europe and the US to let their guard down and is set to
become an opportunity to effectively pressure the West to lift sanctions and stop aid to
Ukraine. On the other hand, such information leads to misleading personalisation, which makes
the public believe that everything bad in Russia is only due to Putin’s personal decisions and
actions. In a word, with Putin gone, Russia has a chance of democratisation, the West a reliable
partner and Western societies a chance of friendly relations with the Russians.
However, it makes little sense to focus the attention of world public opinion on information
about Vladimir Putin’s health. For it is not the individuals that are most important in assessing
the current Russia. Today’s aggressive regime is a system based on Soviet-era secret services,
very deeply rooted in Russian state structures. One element of this system is the imperialism
that permeates state institutions, elites and Russian society as a whole. The “showpiece” of this
system is now Putin, but it is not he who creates it. It was the system that created him.
Therefore, replacing him will have no real consequences in terms of the logic that drives state
actions. Hopes for a positive change in Russia after some pawns are shifted on the Kremlin’s
elite chessboard are absurd.
There is no doubt that Vladimir Putin suffers from many illnesses. He has been obsessed with
diseases since the COVID-19 outbreak and is now acting paranoid, expecting an attack even
from those who have so far been his allies. After all, such attacks are nothing unusual for the
Kremlin. Indeed, many Kremlin rulers and members of the Russian elite have been secretly
assassinated and replaced by other functionaries. The regime spit them out and replaced them
with new ones. While there are currently no signs that Putin’s time in Russia is coming to an
end, emerging frictions within the Kremlin elite could lead in time to bloody and violent
changes in Moscow. There is no doubt whatsoever that Putin may abruptly leave the stage. This
will require preparation and will be preceded by a decision that it is time to end the “Putin
project”. Then a new figure will take over, becoming another “showpiece” of a system that has
been based on the very same principles for centuries.
While “a replacement” of the Kremlin ruler, which is bound to happen one day, may have
a groundbreaking significance in the eyes of world public opinion, its significance for the
Kremlin regime will be merely technical. For a system based on secret services, oligarchs and
people linked to organised crime, the only thing that matters is continuing an aggressive
imperial policy rooted in the ideology of “Greater Russia”, as well as maintaining dysfunctional
arrangements that ensure unhindered profiteering. Once Putin is replaced, some friendly
signals will likely be sent out into the world — perhaps Russia’s new “showpiece” will be
friendlier, better “tailored” to the needs of the West and in line with hopes of normalisation.
Dmitry Medvedev, who became “president” of Russia in 2008, was exactly such a person. In reality, he was just another pawn in the system’s game. A similar figure will be chosen by the system when Putin’s time is up. Whoever they may be, they will not realistically change Russia.
The Russian system will continue along the same lines.
No figure present in Russian politics today would be able to change this system. It is steeped in
imperialism and hostility towards other states. Even Alexei Navalny, who appears to many in
the West as a hope for a democratic Russia, is far from being a politician who respects
international law and the democratic rules of the game. Although pushed to the sidelines of the
Russian political scene and subject to repression, he, too, is attached to Russian imperialism,
has supported Russia’s 2014 aggression against Ukraine and remains committed to the idea of
a superpower Russia. Neither he nor any other political centre in Russia should raise hopes in
the West for the liberalisation and democratisation of Russia.
Personnel changes in Russia will not trigger any fundamental systemic changes. We will be
waiting for that for years. The system is now consolidating. The Russian economy has
transitioned to a war footing, censorship is being stepped up, and more indoctrination
programmes are being introduced into schools, distorting history and the current image of
Russia and the rest of the world. The Russian public, intoxicated by propaganda, living in
poverty but fed with myths about Russia as a besieged fortress, blindly believes in its leaders. It
overwhelmingly supports the criminal war against Ukraine, backs Vladimir Putin and will
support anyone the Russian power apparatus appoints as a leader.
One must not succumb to the pipe dream that Vladimir Putin’s departure will change Russia.
That the country will then become a reliable and friendly partner that one can buy cheap oil and
gas from. This is a dangerous delusion, and tales of Putin’s imminent demise are encouraging
the Western public to play into the Kremlin’s hand when the criminal regime finally decides to
announce the new “ruler” of Russia.
By Stanislaw Żaryn, for StopFake
Stanislaw Żaryn is Secretary of State at the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, Government Plenipotentiary for the Security of Information Space of the Republic of Poland.
