Tag "CEPA"

NATO’s East flank: conflict scenarios

By ​Janusz Bugajski, for CEPA Reexamining the Alliance’s Vulnerable Shoulder Ahead of the NATO London Summit At NATO’s London Summit on 3-4 December 2019, Alliance leaders will refocus their attention on the Black Sea. This will provide a valuable opportunity to assess the dangers facing the Alliance’s most vulnerable flank between the Black and Baltic Seas, particularly from conflicts promoted by Moscow. The London Summit will revisit the package of measures

Moscow’s man in Belgrade

By Edward Lucas, for CEPA Will a recent spy bust cause Serbia to reconsider its relationship with Russia? Imagine you are the leader of a country that has caught a Russian spy. Here are a few things you should say to the Russian ambassador. First, show your displeasure. Cancel an upcoming visit, freeze trade talks, postpone other events. Also, discuss expulsions. At least one, and perhaps several officials based at

The world according to Macron

By Edward Lucas, for CEPA Is Global France Compatible With the Atlantic World? Atlanticists have complained for decades that the European end of the Alliance is timid in its actions and parochial in its outlook. After Emanuel Macron’s explosive interview with the Economist, those complaints need rethinking. The French president’s ambition and vision cannot be gainsaid. He spoke in sweeping terms of the “brain death” of NATO, called for a

Bulgaria Challenges Moscow: Sofia fights back against Russia’s distortions of history

By Janusz Bugajsky, for CEPA Despite Bulgaria’s NATO membership, Moscow has exploited its historically cordial ties with Sofia to undermine the country’s Western commitments. However, a struggle is now intensifying between traditional pro-Russia lobbies and Western-leaning activists who are reasserting Bulgarian identity. To fully affirm its distinctiveness, Bulgaria needs to reclaim its history, uphold its sovereignty, and thwart Moscow’s pernicious political influences. Russian officials have traditionally depicted Bulgarians, similarly to

Russia’s influence arcenal: Watch out, this is what China is learning from Russia 

By Edward Lucas, for CEPA Last week’s column looked at six political warfare tactics common to Russia and China, and three that are used (so far) only by the regime in Beijing. That leaves eleven Kremlin-only ones. For convenience, they are in (English) alphabetical order. First is the exploitation of economic, ethnic, linguistic, regional, religious, social, and other divisions. This is a hallmark Russian approach. Chinese divide-and-rule tactics focus on

Battleground Wikipedia

By Anna Ūdre, for CEPA For a few hours on 24 January the English-language Wikipedia page of the newly-elected Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš was incorrect on a key point: his nationality was listed as American. A Latvian Russian politician and Member of the European Parliament (MEP) known for supporting Moscow’s views then used this fabrication to try to raise anti-American sentiment on social media. The change was first reported by Ilmars Poikans, a Latvian Artificial

Kremlin targets Lithuania’s energy policy

By Dalia Bankauskaitė, for CEPA On 30 November, Lithuania’s National Commission for Energy Control and Prices (NCC), the independent agency that regulates energy fees in accordance with the international energy market, gave final approval to domestic electricity and gas rates for 2019. Electricity prices for residential consumers will rise by 15 percent, while residential gas prices will rise by 15-20 percent. Industrial consumers will also have to pay more: a 40 percent increase in electricity rates

Edward Lucas: How to respond to Moscow’s Azov escalation

By Edward Lucas, for CEPA Once again, Russia has pushed the line in Ukraine. Here’s how the West should have reacted after Azov. Imagine that it is September 1st 1939. German troops have just attacked Poland. Should the outside world (a) call for calm, (b) denounce Hitler’s aggression, or (c) help Poland? Seen from a modern perspective, the answer is clear. Pre-war Poland, although far from perfect, was the innocent party

Chaos as a strategy: Putin’s “Promethean” Gamble

By Donald N. Jensen, Peter B. Doran, for CEPA 15 November 2018 Can Vladimir Putin’s nonlinear strategy succeed against the West? For all of Russia’s weaknesses as a Great Power, the Kremlin increasingly is willing to take risks—sometimes recklessly—to balance its disadvantages against the relative power of Western competitors like the United States. Risk taking is a dangerous business for any state—declining or otherwise. But what if the Kremlin believed that

Edward Lucas: Threads of the past

By Edward Lucas, for CEPA Edward Lucas seams together a Soviet chic garment and the Kremlin’s inability to deal honestly with history. Nazi memorabilia is not cool. If you hold your nose and look on the internet, you can find flags, T-shirts and bumper stickers commemorating the Third Reich on sale at outlets that also sell pagan-themed cigarette lighters and Ku Klux Klan regalia. But no reputable retailer would stock

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