The video is fabricated. Neither the Institute for the Study of War nor any other credible source has reported anything about the preparation of such a provocation.
Pro-Russian outlets are circulating a video bearing the logo of the Institute for the Study of War that claims Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian intelligence services are preparing a terrorist attack to be blamed on Russia — targeting either a hospital or a residential building. The video features a quote attributed to ISW President Kimberly Kagan, who purportedly stated that Zelensky “needs a tragedy to sell to Western partners.”
In reality, the video is fabricated, and the information it contains was published by neither the Institute for the Study of War nor any other credible source. The report appeared on neither the organization’s website nor its YouTube channel. The fake content stands in stark contrast to ISW’s genuine output: while the circulating video is a low-quality stock footage compilation with no supporting evidence or source references, ISW’s actual videos feature analysts discussing their own research grounded in facts and data. Russian propagandists have used the ISW brand to spread disinformation on numerous prior occasions.
It is also telling that Russia attributes to the Ukrainian government the very tactics it employs itself. Carrying out terrorist acts for the purpose of provocation and the manipulation of public opinion is a well-documented Russian strategy. In 1999, the FSB organized a series of apartment bombings across several Russian cities, blamed on Chechen separatists and used as a pretext for launching the Second Chechen War while helping Vladimir Putin consolidate power. In 2022, Russian forces carried out an attack on the Olenivka prison holding Ukrainian prisoners of war; despite propagandists’ claims that the building was destroyed by Ukrainian HIMARS, a number of independent experts — including the Institute for the Study of War — concluded that Russia was responsible.
Through fakes of this kind, Russian propaganda seeks to justify missile strikes on civilian infrastructure and shift responsibility for civilian casualties onto the Ukrainian government. The Kremlin circulated a similar fake in January, likewise attributed to the Institute for the Study of War, which StopFake debunked in Fake: European Politicians Are Planning Provocations to Blame on Moscow — Institute for the Study of War.
